Methodology · 研究方法

Last updated · 最後更新：2026-09-03

This page explains every quantitative method on hkstock.observer. Transparency is our editorial standard: every score, signal and sentiment reading you see on the dashboard is produced by the rules described below, applied uniformly to every trading session.

本頁說明 hkstock.observer 每一項量化方法。透明是我們的核心編輯準則：儀表板上的每一項評分、信號與情緒判斷，皆由以下規則統一計算。

1. Five-Factor Constituent Scoring · 五因子成份股評分

Each Hang Seng Index constituent is scored 0–10 on five dimensions, then combined into a weighted composite:

Factor · 因子	Weight · 權重	What we measure · 量度內容
Capital Flow 資金流向	30%	Net institutional order-flow direction over the session — large-block buy vs sell pressure inferred from the broker queue and large-trade tape.
Broker Queue 經紀掛單	20%	Order-book asymmetry among the top ten brokers — whether institutional houses are net-bid or net-offer at the best quotes.
Fundamentals 基本面	20%	Trailing twelve-month revenue trajectory, ROE, free cash flow and leverage ratio relative to sector peers.
Technicals 技術面	20%	Position relative to 20/50/200-day moving averages, RSI regime and recent consolidation breakouts.
Volume-Price 量價形態	10%	Turnover expansion on up-days vs down-days and divergence between price action and volume — classic Wyckoff-style confirmation.

Filters ( Capital Picks , Inst. Support , Value Picks , Trend Breakouts , Vol-Price Anomaly ) isolate the top ten constituents by each single factor. Clicking a row opens its five-axis radar chart plus the triggered signals computed from cross-factor interactions.

篩選鈕（ 資金之選 、 機構支撐 、 價值首選 、 趨勢突破 、 量價異動 ）分別抽出單一因子最高的十隻成份股。點擊該行可開啟五軸雷達圖及觸發信號。

2. Verdict Banner (HSI Score) · 大市判決

The top-of-factors banner shows a single HSI score (typically between −1 and +1) and a verdict label (Bullish / Neutral / Bearish). The score is the weighted average of the fifty constituents' composite scores, centred on five and normalised. The verdict follows hard thresholds: score ≥ +0.5 → Bullish; ≤ −0.5 → Bearish; otherwise Neutral. The emoji (🟢 / 🟡 / 🔴) is deterministic from the verdict, not an LLM judgement.

頂部的大市判決顯示單一 HSI 分數（通常介乎 −1 至 +1）與判決標籤（偏多／中性／偏淡）。分數為五十隻成份股加權綜合分的平均值，以五為中心正規化。判決按硬門檻：≥ +0.5 偏多；≤ −0.5 偏淡；否則中性。表情符號由判決確定，並非模型判斷。

3. Southbound Streak · 北水連續淨流入

The streak counter counts consecutive sessions of positive net southbound flow, resetting to zero on any net-outflow day. The YTD figure sums all daily net flows in the current calendar year. Source data is scraped from the BNP Paribas warrant research page via a rendering proxy, deduplicated by date and by identical data under a rolled-forward timestamp (safe for our 3×/day refresh).

連續淨流入日數計算正淨流入的連續交易日，任何淨流出日均重置為零。年初至今為本年每日淨流入總和。數據經渲染代理從 BNP 法巴權證研究頁抓取，並按日期與相同數據捲動去重（適合每日三次更新節奏）。

4. AI Research Pipeline · AI 研究流程

The three daily reports in the AI tab are produced as follows:

Context build. A structured bilingual brief is assembled from overview.json (HSI, breadth, turnover, options wall) and macro.json (southbound flow & streak). 從 overview.json 與 macro.json 整合雙語市場簡報。
LLM pass (primary). The brief is sent to a Gemini-family model via OpenRouter, asked to return a strict JSON schema: five to six one-liners plus three labelled reports (Trend, Flows, Options). 透過 OpenRouter 呼叫 Gemini 系列模型，要求返回嚴格 JSON：五至六句短句與三篇標註報告。
Cascade to paid model. If the free tier returns 401/402/429/timeout/bad-JSON, the same prompt retries against DeepSeek. 若免費層失敗（401/402/429/超時/壞 JSON），以 DeepSeek 重試。
Rule-based fallback (last resort). When both models are unreachable, clearly-labelled template reports are generated from the same day's numbers. The model badge on the card reads HK-Observer-v2 (rule-based) so readers can tell machine-written from template-written at a glance. 兩個模型皆不可用時，以清楚標註的規則模板生成報告；卡片上的 model 標籤會顯示 HK-Observer-v2 (rule-based)，讓讀者一眼分辨。

A deterministic sentiment gauge (0–100) is computed from HSI change and breadth ratio independently of the LLM, so the headline reading never depends on model availability.

情緒儀表（0–100）由 HSI 升跌與廣度比例獨立計算，不依賴模型，確保標題情緒永不因模型不可用而失靈。

5. Options Strike Wall · 期權行使價牆

For each of the next three HSI options expiry months we plot the single largest put open-interest strike and the single largest call open-interest strike, with the daily change in OI shown beside each. The HSI spot sits at the 50% mark on a symmetric scale. These walls represent the levels where the largest option writers have concentrated exposure and where price is statistically most likely to pin or reverse near expiry.

就未來三個恒指期權到期月，分別標示最大 Put 與最大 Call 未平倉合約行使價，並附未平倉合約每日變動。恒指現貨於對稱刻度中位。此等行使價牆代表最大期權賣方集中風險之處，亦即臨近到期時價格最可能釘住或反轉之處。

6. Macro Sources · 宏觀數據來源

HIBOR	HKMA public interest-rate feed; Public Bank HK as backup.
US Treasury yields	FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) daily CSV, no API key.
FX (USD/HKD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY)	Yahoo Finance chart API with prior-session carry-forward.
Gold, Brent, VIX, DXY	Yahoo Finance chart API (futures symbols where available).
Short-selling ratio